![]() ![]() Without it, we do not know in which stage of the disease the country is at a certain time. The number of confirmed cases is only a reliable number if a testing strategy is adopted. It is clear that the more timely the action of the local authorities turns out to be, the more effective is the result. In this paper, we analyse how, in the early stage of the pandemic, the mitigation strategies adopted by the local authorities can be monitored by using the weekly spreading rate of the countries, and, at the end of the outbreak, how they can be evaluated by studying the skew-normal distributions that fit the daily confirmed cases and deaths curves of each country. In the Covid-19 crisis, it seems that some articles have been written more to convince the local authorities than to scientifically discuss the real situation of the spreading of the outbreak in each country. Nevertheless, such models often create controversy about how, when, and whether their could be a useful tool in helping policy decisions. The study and development of models of infectious disease dynamics surely plays a fundamental role in facing an unknown outbreak. The Brazilian mitigation measures can be placed between the strict lockdown of many European countries and the Swedish approach, but clearly much comparable to the European ones (in particular to the Netherlands). We also discuss additional factors that could play an important role in the fight against Covid-19, such as the fast response of the local authorities, the testing strategies, the number of beds in the intensive care units, and, last but not least, the measures of isolation adopted. For Sweden, UK, and USA, we shall give a forecast for the end of pandemic and for Brazil the prediction of the peak of DDpM. This is done by using the weekly spreading rate of Covid-19. The initial stage of the Brazilian disease is compared with the early phase of the European one. The use of these asymmetrical distributions allows to get a more realistic prediction of the end of the disease in each country and to evaluate the effectiveness of the local authorities strategies in facing the European outbreak. Using the European data as a basis for our analysis, we study the spreading rate of Covid-19 and model the Daily Confirmed Cases and Deaths per Million (DCCpM and DDpM) curves by using “skew-normal” probability density functions. As the number of Covid-19 infections worldwide overtakes 6 millions of Total Confirmed Cases (TCC), the data reveal almost closed outbreaks in many European countries.
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